Tunisia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia…?

by nkronos on January 30, 2011

The Belmont Club points to the next crisis, assuming Mubarak falls:

With a Shi’ite dominated government in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and a Muslim Brotherhood that may keep Egypt in neutral or tacitly accept Teheran’s leadership, how could things possibly get worse? They can if Saudi Arabia starts to go.  And what response can the U.S. offer?

Answer to the rhetorical question: Should America lose its influence in the Middle East, the best American future we can hope to win–in answer to this duffer administration’s WTF challenge–is something like Germany’s in the 1970s. That is, we accept that we are no longer the dominant global power, but we still have tremendous capacity at home. Domestic problems are quite daunting enough, especially given a bankrupt treasury.

True, $100/barrel oil is not conducive to an economic recovery, but it is more hurtful to our international competitors than to us. Although China is growing the capacity to dominate its immediate geographic region, it lacks the capacity for any foreseeable future to threaten, militarily, global stability. Besides, when a nation is winning peacefully it rarely throws the game board and playing pieces in the air.

Lastly, militant Islam is no more welcoming of Chinese hegemony than it is American.

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